Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life – however this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as both parties – including the nation's leader – perceive advantages in digging in.
Here are several key factors in which things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are using the budget standoff to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support together with Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, both facing public opposition.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself said last week that the shutdown had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get federal operations, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Experts project about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate that it could shave approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, experts indicate that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become more long-lasting.