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Just two days before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there was some opposition. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.