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Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the first Ashes Test appears doubtful due to persistent injury concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had indicated that Cummins might miss the whole series, though the pace bowler himself has now given a more detailed update on his condition.

Injury Timeline

The 32-year-old has been battling with a back stress injury that has kept him sidelined since his last competitive match in July.

Although Cummins has resumed running exercises, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his recovery program.

"It's difficult to assign a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," stated Cummins. "We get into begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from actually putting on the spikes and delivering on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Team mentor Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would require a minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, clarifying: "It's necessary to have at least probably a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to ensure you're able to bowl 20 overs in a day without concern."

Series Implications

Given the tight timeframe, there are also concerns about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former captain Steve Smith is expected to captain the side, with Scott Boland potentially stepping in in the pace department.

The hosts have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current fitness issues echo challenges from earlier in his distinguished career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time.

However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins experienced six years before his second Test appearance due to multiple stress fractures in his spine.

Career Achievements

When healthy, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's elite fast bowlers. The 32-year-old has taken 309 Test dismissals at an remarkable average of 22.10.

His record in Australia is even more impressive, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the latest Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and establishing his importance to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's victorious World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final win against India.

He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own fitness concerns with captain Ben Stokes, who has been affected by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series approaches.